Practicalmadness

Oh yes, my children, it is that time of year again. Steve Jobs is scheduled to take the stage tomorrow morning at 9 AM Pacific Time for the keynote address at the annual MacWorld Expo in San Francisco (MWSF), and as always he is expected to announce at least one jaw-dropping new Apple product.

My predictions and thoughts:

What To Definitely Expect

• The Unexpected: There are some smart-aleck Mac watchers who think they know what’s going to happen tomorrow. I’m sure there’s someone out there who’s even got it all mapped out — a minute-by-minute breakdown of what Steve Jobs is going to say, from an update on Apple retail and iPod sales, to demos of Leopard, iLife and iWork, right through to the iTV and One More Thing: the iPhone.

  Well, these people are wrong. Sure, there’s always some things announced in the Stevenote that are easy to predict (I’d say iLife and iWork are mortal locks, and I’ll be way surprised if iTV doesn’t get at least a mention), but the biggest, most wonderful announcements are always the ones we never saw coming. And even if the pundits are 100% right, and Apple announces exactly the new products people expect them to, it’s impossible to be prepared for how cool it is to finally see them and hear Steve Jobs talk about them.

  In other words: yeah, sure, there may be an iPod phone tomorrow. But be prepared to find that everything you thought you knew about the iPhone is wrong.

What To Expect

• A. Freaking. Cell phone. I had originally posted the long-fabled “iPhone” in the “Possibles” column, as something that a lot of people were talking about but which I didn’t actually believe would ever actually happen.

  Well, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Apple phone is real (subscription required), and they’ve reached a hush-hush agreement with Cingular to be the exclusive U.S. carrier. Whether this means that Apple will be pushing a special Apple-branded Cingular plan (bringing the famous Jobsian ease of use to one of the most horrifying things in high tech, the choosing of a cell phone plan) or just letting Cingular have a period of exclusivity before releasing the phone to other carriers is unclear.

  I would hope that it’s the former, and if it is the case that it’s some new “Apple Mobile” wireless service that’s simply “powered by” Cingular’s network, I might be sorely tempted to switch my wireless service. A sexy, easy-to-use mobile gadget is one thing, but if Apple can do for cell phone service what they did for movie and music downloads, that would be revolutionary.

  At any rate, this is all still rumor and conjecture until Jobs pulls an iPhone out of his pocket (or not) in about 15 more hours. But leaving aside the Journal’s long reputation for reporting facts, remember that they’re the ones who scooped the world by confirming the Apple-Intel deal in 2005, days before it was officially announced at WWDC.

  Elsewhere in the mainstream media, the New York Times is under the impression that this Apple cell phone will be more than just an iPod that makes calls, but rather a whole new category of gadget that combines digital entertainment with next-level wireless communications features — in short, a smartphone that finally doesn’t suck.

• iLife ‘07: A mortal lock — there will be a new iLife unveiled tomorrow, and I’m sure there will be one or two interesting bullet-point features for each app, along with the expected performance improvements. Me, I’m hoping to see some major improvements to iWeb, which right now is completely useless unless you’re using it in combination with .Mac and the other iLife apps. I’d also love some more powerful editing tools in iPhoto or GarageBand, but that’s what Aperture and Logic Express are for, so maybe not.

• iWork ‘07: There will absolutely be a new iWork revision announced tomorrow; the big question is whether Apple will finally unveil their long-rumored spreadsheet product. Apple’s been without a basic spreadsheet since they started to phase out AppleWorks in favor of iWork two years ago, and while Pages’s built in table creation isn’t terrible, there are times when you just want to be able to drag-drop or import some data from Excel and you just can’t. With a spreadsheet, iWork is a simple yet viable alternative for home and SOHO users who just don’t need all the clutter and hassle of Microsoft Office. Without one, it’s just Keynote with a wonky page layout app.

  Speaking of which: I sincerely hope that Think Secret’s report about Pages 3 having a “word processing mode” is on the level. Pages is a nice little app and I use it all the time for producing business documents, like deal memos and proposals. However, it’s so layout-focused that it’s hard to write in, so I usually end up crafting the text in TextMate (using Markdown for formatting), then converting it to HTML, then importing that into Pages. I would love to be able to just switch out of Pages’s layout view and just write the damned thing in Pages.

  Oh, and while I don’t honestly expect this rumor to pan out, I think some easy way to do a Keynote presentation from a video iPod would be awesome. But it’s probably not going to happen.

• Mac OS X Leopard: Of course Jobs is going to talk about it, and it wouldn’t surprise me if a rather large portion of the Keynote is devoted to showing off the new OS. If history is any indication, while we’ll probably see some minor things that weren’t mentioned or shown back in August at WWDC, the presentation at MacWorld will probably stick pretty close to Leopard’s biggest, most consumer-friendly new goodies — Time Machine, Spaces and the new versions of Safari, Mail and iChat.

  I also think it’s unlikely that we’ll get a final price or release date tomorrow, which (again) would be consistent with OS X Tiger’s release in 2005. Leopard will not be released this week, this month or even this quarter. Me, I’m betting on an April or May release, at the familiar price of $129.

  Oh, and this is just a hunch, but I feel like Jobs is going to lay off the Microsoft- and Vista-bashing tomorrow, at least somewhat. Why? Because the word is that they have got a killer keynote, and to spend more than a short minute pointing out how Vista’s best new features are all ripped off from last year’s OS X when every technology columnist in the country has already done it just sounds petty.

• “iTV”: I’m not 100% certain that Apple is ready to begin shipping the home entertainment integration gadget codenamed “iTV” (that they previewed at the “Showtime” iPod event back in September), but it would shock me if Jobs didn’t at least mention it. And it would also shock me if whatever is shown tomorrow were to differ at all from what was shown back then; I’d expect the user interface to be more polished, and for Jobs to be able to demonstrate how it integrates with the Mac, but that’s about it.

  I do not expect Apple to announce a line of plasma TVs with iTV technology built in, nor do I anticipate that the iTV has suddenly morphed into the TiVo-killing Apple DVR people have been dreaming about for years. Because that would just be silly.

Possibles

• New AirPort Wireless Doo-Dads: I place this under “Possibles” only because the information I’ve seen today is sketchy, but it looks like Apple may be releasing a couple of next-generation Wi-Fi devices called the AirPort Extreme X2 and X4. Based only on a quick chat with the voices in my head and common sense, I’d guess that one or both of these products — if they exist — are based on the new 802.11n high-speed Wi-Fi specification, offering more stable connections and speeds of up to — holy crap — 300 Mbps. And that Jobs will make a point to mention that most recent Intel Macs already come with 802.11n-capable wireless cards, so they can be made “AirPort Extreme X-whatever Ready” with (hopefully) a simple firmware upgrade.

• New iSights / New Cinema Displays with built-in iSights: Yeah, they would come out with cool new displays right after I buy a 23-inch Cinema for my office. The built-in iSight is the focal point for a lot of cool new features in Leopard (and in iLife ‘07, I’d imagine), and yet Mac mini and Mac Pro users (as well as folks like me who use their MacBook Pros hooked up to an external display) have to either buy the external FireWire iSight (which hasn’t been substantively redesigned or changed in three and a half years) or just go without Photo Booth. So the possibility has been raised that Apple might either revamp the Cinema Display to include the same built-in iSight as found on Macs with built-in screens, or that the external iSight might be given a major overhaul. Not sure how likely this one is yet, but it has a smack of truth to it. (And ham.)

• Final Cut Express 4: Let me be clear: I’ve read no rumors on the internets saying that there will be or might be a new Final Cut Express announced at MacWorld — this is just me speculating, since unless you count the updates released last year for Intel compatibility, none of Apple’s pro audio or video apps have been substantively updated since 2005.

  I really don’t think Apple would use MacWorld to announce new versions of Final Cut Studio or Logic, but it’s been almost two years since Final Cut Pro’s had a new major release (not counting the update for Intel compatibility last year), and new versions of Final Cut Express are usually based on Final Cut Pro code that’s due to be retired. So if Apple were planning to announce a new Final Cut Studio release at NAB in April, it might also be an opportune time for them to announce an Express release that incorporates some new goodies rolled over from FCP 5.

• New Mac Pros: This one is only on the radar because Intel just announced the quad-core Xeon 5300 processor, and so it would seem likely that Apple will introduce a dual-processor, eight-core(!!!) Mac Pro either tomorrow or shortly thereafter, affording Steve and/or Phil Schiller yet another opportunity to tell us how Macs are now both faster and cheaper than your funky old Dell. MacWorld is often more consumer-oriented, so I’m not sure whether Apple would take time away from fun stuff to announce a ridiculously overpowered workstation Mac, just so they could run the World’s Fastest Photoshop Test. But they just might, because that’s just the kinda crazy Steve Jobs is.

• New Mac minis or iMacs: Again, nothing to support this on the internets, but both of these products are getting long in the tooth and MacWorld is the traditional place to roll out cool new models. Both the Mac mini and iMac got a speed bump in September, and the iMac’s high-end model was upgraded to a 24” screen. But neither has been substantively changed since 2005, so maybe it’s time for them to evolve. On the other hand, the G4 iMac lasted 44 months without a major redesign, and the Mac mini is such a bare-bones product that I’m not sure what else could be done apart from making it faster, smaller or cheaper.

What Not To Expect

• Ultraportable MacBook: I believe there will inevitably be a superthin, superlight Mac portable — just not yet. Just doesn’t seem like the right occasion, and it would be competing for stage time with iLife, iWork, Leopard, iTV and whatever else Steve has got.

• Mac tablet: Absolutely not. Tablets are one of those things that seem cooler and more high-tech than they actually are, Windows tablet sales are less than stellar, and there’s simply no need to Apple to branch out into a niche market just because they still have some handwriting recognition technology laying around from the old Newton.

• The “true” video iPod: Because the video iPod sitting right in front of me on my desk can’t really play video, it’s just a cruel trick of the eye. Just as with the Mac tablet, the only people asking for this product are gadget nerds, and Apple designs products for everybody. The current fifth-gen iPods are still music players first and foremost, with a basic video capability that makes them good for commuting or travelling without adding the bulk and heft of, say, a portable DVD thingy or PSP. And anyone who still has or has ever used a third-gen iPod should really think twice before saying they want a touchscreen iPod. I for one prefer to have real buttons to press.

• Or any new iPod, really: At this point I think the iPod has outgrown MacWorld. While the Stevenote at MWSF is still the single biggest Apple event of the year, the fall iPod events have achieved almost equal stature and are conveniently scheduled right before the holiday shopping season. The focus tomorrow will be on Macs, Mac software and maybe digital media (i.e., the Mac as digital hub). Could there be a hot new iPod accessory? Sure, but I’d expect Apple to hold off on any major additions or revisions to the core iPod family until later in the year, if not until next September. (And yes, I am including a Beatles iPod in this, because neither Apple nor Apple Corps would want that announcement to be upstaged by anything.)

• And just because it bears repeating, the following things will not be announced at tomorrow’s Keynote:

  • Apple making Mac OS X available for non-Apple computers
  • Built-in virtualization in Leopard
  • A new Finder
  • Return of the Newton

More about that “Apple Mobile” service

I just ran across this post on the blog SeekingAlpha that cites a UBS analyst as saying Apple would be starting up an MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) — in other words, their own wireless service — using Cingular’s network. Now, analyst reports are just a very specialized form of conjecture, so until Jobs says it’s happening nobody knows anything.

But I did want to amplify my thoughts on the whole MVNO possibility. One data point that is sure to be mentioned by every business reporter and pundit following today’s keynote (if indeed Apple is announcing their own mobile service) is that Disney’s much-hyped Mobile ESPN service was a total flop, and shut down operations on Dec. 31 with all customers’ plans being rolled over to Sprint, the major carrier providing the network for ESPN.

The difference is that ESPN’s big added-value feature was mobile content; apart from getting sports scores and videos on a stunningly unsexy phone, there was nothing to clearly distinguish Mobile ESPN from any other cell phone company, and there are many cheaper ways to get sports content.

Apple wouldn’t be doing this just to put their own brand on the same old Cingular service you can use with any other device. I would think the more apt comparison would be with Earthlink’s Helio service, which provides tight integration between their devices (which are exclusive to Helio) and their service, as well as a strong emphasis on mobile internet features like MySpace Mobile (which is also exclusive to Helio).

The really interesting thing about Helio — and why it’s the most likely model for whatever Apple would attempt in this space — is that they really like to steer customers toward an all-in-one service plan which includes unlimited messaging and, more significantly, unlimited data on Sprint’s high-speed 3G network. Their plans tend to be a bit more expensive ($65/mo for 500 anytime minutes; Cingular’s most comparable plan is $40 and T-Mobile’s is even less) but what you’re paying for is the assurance that you won’t be nickel-and-dimed on non-calling stuff like text messages and mobile internet, and that because you’re buying a Helio phone and Helio service, that everything will Just Work.

Helio’s always seemed like an interesting offering — and at $65/month for unlimited messaging and data, I’d be losing 500 anytime minutes I don’t ever use and would save a lot of money compared to my current T-Mobile plan — except for the fact that I don’t really like any of their phones, and being on Sprint’s network there’s no way to bring in your own. If Apple can offer a no-hassle cell phone service and a sexy, usable mobile device to go with it, that could be a game-changer. Hell, if they can offer some kind of flat-rate pricing that makes sense I would switch even without the iPhone.

One More Thing…

Whatever gets announced tomorrow, I think I can safely predict that some part of it will involve .Mac, Apple’s $99/year subscription service offering file storage, e-mail and quick, easy publishing for all your various digital crap from iLife. I’m a cynic when it comes to .Mac, a product that exists only because there’s a large portion of Apple’s target audience who simply may not know that you can access your free Gmail account from Mail, or that you can buy a $25 plugin that lets you post photos to Flickr directly from iPhoto, or that there are file storage options way faster and cheaper than the iDisk, like Joyent’s new BingoDisk! service which offers 25 GB (compared to 1 GB on .Mac) of the same kind of WebDAV storage as iDisk for less than half the price of a one-year .Mac subscription.

At any rate, I know I’m not alone in feeling that .Mac has to be stopped. At $99/year, it is way, way overpriced for a service that’s really little more than some web space and an e-mail address. The iDisk is convenient, sure, but only in the Finder: you can open your iDisk by just hitting Command-Shift-I, but that puts you at the mercy of the Finder’s notoriously flaky internet sharing abilities.

Moving files to or from the iDisk is slow work, and you may be surprised to learn that that has nothing to do with Apple’s servers. If you open your iDisk in a file transfer program like Transmit or Interarchy, or even as a Web Folder on Windows, it gets much faster and more reliable. The problem with iDisk is with the Finder, pure and simple. But without the Finder and the convenient iDisk access it affords, you’re really just overpaying for a 1 GB WebDAV share.

It may well be the case — oh, believe me, I hope it to be the case — that Leopard will be the OS X release that finally resolves some long-standing issues and makes the Finder usable again. But that doesn’t address the problem, which is that the current Mac Finder is total crap (at least when it comes to network file sharing), and so .Mac subscribers are paying $99 year to have convenient access to a feature that doesn’t really work, and their best hope is to pay $129 more in April to maybe fix that.

And the iDisk isn’t even the flakiest part of .Mac — that honor belongs to .Mac Sync, which until recently was the only feature of the service I used on a regular basis. And since I’m not an expert on all the fine technical points of why .Mac Sync is a total steaming pile of evil, allow me to quote such an expert, Ars Technica’s John Siracusa:

The idea behind .Mac syncing is attractive: share and coordinate application data among several Macs. This includes email accounts, encrypted passwords, calendar events, bookmarks, contacts, and so on.

All this syncing is subject to the same slowness and unreliability as the rest of .Mac, but that’s not where the aforementioned “boundless evil” comes from. .Mac’s sync services are available to third-party developers as well, and that’s where the real trouble starts.

It’s one thing for .Mac to suck in isolation. It’s another thing entirely for it to infect all your favorite applications. Thanks to the ubiquity of .Mac (every Mac sold has the software to use it pre-installed) and Apple’s efforts to push the Sync Services API, pretty much every Mac OS X application that has to do any sort of network syncing does so through .Mac. And .Mac, as we know, is slow and unreliable. This, in turn, makes the applications that use it slow and unreliable.

And I could bore you for days complaining about how .Mac and iWeb are Hurting the Internet.

So here’s my proposal. I’ll say once again, this is nothing that’s been rumored, or for that matter that I have any expectation of actually happening. But it’s what should happen:

• Apple needs to either make .Mac into a better value — like 100 GB (or even 50 or 25) for $99/year (or $69 or $49) — or they just need to stop charging money for it. To be able to publish your cool iLife content to .Mac with a single click is nice, but no one will ever convince me that Apple needs to charge $99/year to provide 1 GB of storage space that isn’t even SSL-encrypted or reliably accessible from the Finder. It’s not just the quality of the service that I’m talking about here: $99/year for the best, most reliable 1 GB of storage space is still too much money. Apple is a tremendously profitable company; surely they can afford to make some basic level of .Mac service available for free.

• If iDisk is going to stall the Finder for four minutes because I accidentally hit Cmd-Shift-I instead of Cmd-Shift-O, then Apple can either fix the problem of just remove iDisk integration from the Finder.

• The same can be said for Sync Services: they need to work 100%, every time, or they need to come out.

• Push-button publishing from the iLife apps is nice and all, but it shouldn’t be the only option. They should team up with Google to incorporate a one-click “Export to YouTube” feature in iMovie, and make it easy to get photos out of iPhoto and uploaded to Flickr or Picasa Web Albums.

Apple is such a brilliant, innovative company. Their web browser is (in my opinion, at least) superior to anything else out there, and their online store for music and movie downloads is the 800-lb gorilla of digital media. It should be so easy for them to create a set of online services that are not only good but essential for any Mac user. And yet .Mac is easily Apple’s most worthless product. It’s seriously time for Apple to do something about that.